If the election had been two weeks ago, senior aides to Harris were admitting in recent days, the vice president probably would have lost. But they went into Tuesday feeling like she had gotten herself to a likely squeaker victory. One-on-one conversations volunteers were having as they knocked on doors seemed to be clicking. For the first time in his nine years dominating American politics, Trump’s character seemed to be breaking through as an actual weight on people who wanted to vote for him.