The members of AFP who helped brainstorm Walker’s efforts knew that the legislation would impact union membership – and go far beyond it. Since the passage of the anti-union bill, public union membership rates in Wisconsin have plummeted by more than half, falling from around 50% in 2011 to around 19% by 2017. With fewer members and revenue, the political clout of the labor unions has fallen sharply. Campaign contributions by teachers’ unions to state and local races have fallen by nearly 70%.
In presidential elections, Democrats lose around three percentage points after the passage of anti-union legislation, and turnout dips by around two points. So while there are many factors that might explain Donald Trump’s surprise win in Wisconsin in 2016 by a mere 23,000 votes, a weaker labor movement less able to turn out Democratic voters might have been one important contributor to Trump’s victory. Looking back at the transformation of Wisconsin since Walker’s election, Phillips notes proudly that AFP’s organization in the state now has more grassroots activists than the Wisconsin teachers’ union has members.
